So the term is back.... El Nino. Forecasters have determined that El Nino has returned, after a few years of generally neutral conditions across the Pacific. The exact definition provided by NOAA states: El Niño is a disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe.

The basic idea is that the waters across the equatorial Pacific warm above normal, which happens in a cycle. The last strong El Nino was in 1997 and 1998. The cycle is interconected with trade winds and global patterns, and even has dramatic effects on oceanlife and fishing along the South American Coast.

In an El Nino, the pattern becomes active across a broad area of the western and southern part of the United States. This generally happens during the winter, when the jet stream becomes stronger. In past El Nino years, places like California has seen significant flooding, and right here in Texas, rainfall typically increases. Take a look at these statistics:

In southeast Texas, from December to March, we average about 13.62" of rain. During El Nino years, that average jumps up to 17.33" of rain. In the imfamous El Nino years of 1982 to 1983, we saw 18.42" of rain.

Keep in mind, this is forecasted to be a weak to moderate El Nino, and the effects can be subtle. One such effect would be a decrease in hurricane activity in the Atlantic. El Nino tends to increase winds in the upper levels of the atmopshere, creating too much shear for tropical weather to survive. All in all, the winter should be slightly more active than last year, and possibly a bit warmer too. The rain, at this point, would be a welcome sight. Bring on the El Nino!