The Channel 39 Weather blog is back, after a couple weeks off. The tropics are back too, showing some real life for the first time this season.
As of this morning, Tropical Depression Two has formed in the eastern Atlantic. The system, per quick glance at the satellite, is not terribly impressive.
There does appear to be a pretty decent low-level circulation, and wind shear is currently light, which should allow for some intensification. According to the National Hurricane Center, the depression is moving west at 13 mph. Most models take the depression west, which would make sense with a mid-level subtropical high anchored to the north. The models then track the storm northwest later in the period within a weakness in the ridge.
Along the forecasted track, water temperatures are marginal. This would imply a slow strengthening process, since upper-level winds remain somewhat favorable. By the end of the forecast track, the depression (possibly T.S. Ana by that time) would encounter some less than favorable conditions as upper-level winds increase and water temperatures cool slightly. Regardless, it bears close watching, and 39 Weather will be tracking the storm carefully.
And as if that was not enough, two waves near the Caribbean are beginning to show signs of development. It is much to early, but the environment appears marginal for development, as upper-level winds are still robust, courtesy of El Nino. Both are currently disorganized, and the National Hurricane Center is placing them under a low risk of development (less than 30% chance). These will be tracked closely too.
We are just about a month away from the historic peak of the Hurricane Season. Although it has been a quiet start so far, expect activity to pick up soon... and it already has. The first named storm will be Ana, followed by Bill and Claudette.
As of this morning, Tropical Depression Two has formed in the eastern Atlantic. The system, per quick glance at the satellite, is not terribly impressive.
There does appear to be a pretty decent low-level circulation, and wind shear is currently light, which should allow for some intensification. According to the National Hurricane Center, the depression is moving west at 13 mph. Most models take the depression west, which would make sense with a mid-level subtropical high anchored to the north. The models then track the storm northwest later in the period within a weakness in the ridge.
Along the forecasted track, water temperatures are marginal. This would imply a slow strengthening process, since upper-level winds remain somewhat favorable. By the end of the forecast track, the depression (possibly T.S. Ana by that time) would encounter some less than favorable conditions as upper-level winds increase and water temperatures cool slightly. Regardless, it bears close watching, and 39 Weather will be tracking the storm carefully.
And as if that was not enough, two waves near the Caribbean are beginning to show signs of development. It is much to early, but the environment appears marginal for development, as upper-level winds are still robust, courtesy of El Nino. Both are currently disorganized, and the National Hurricane Center is placing them under a low risk of development (less than 30% chance). These will be tracked closely too.
We are just about a month away from the historic peak of the Hurricane Season. Although it has been a quiet start so far, expect activity to pick up soon... and it already has. The first named storm will be Ana, followed by Bill and Claudette.
